A quick overview of global genetically modified crop market planting, industry layout and development opportunities

It is estimated that by 2050, the global population will reach 9.8 billion. According to the global food crisis report 2020, by the end of 2019, 135 million people in 55 countries and regions are facing serious food security crisis. In these 55 countries and regions, 17 million children are emaciated due to severe malnutrition, and 75 million children are stunted due to chronic malnutrition.

Seed is one of the key agricultural inputs for farmers to produce crops for food, feed and other non food purposes. Due to the limitation of climate change and available arable land area, the cost advantage of biological breeding technology has become more and more important in the sustainable agricultural production strategy (as shown in Figure 1). Driven by biological breeding technology, the future development of seed market is bound to have higher and higher requirements for improving yield, nutritional value and resistance.

Figure 1 contribution of biological breeding technology to food security, sustainability and climate change mitigation

The seed market includes conventional and GM seeds. Genetically modified crops are widely planted in North America, South America and some parts of Asia. The EU mainly adopts a boycott attitude towards genetically modified crops and strictly controls imports. According to the statistics of international service for the acquisition of Agri biotech applications (ISAAA), in 2018, the global planting area of genetically modified crops exceeded 190 million hectares, planting in 26 countries (Figure 2; Figure 3).

Figure 2: Global genetically modified crop cultivation in 2018 ISAAA

Figure 3 global distribution of genetically modified crops ISAAA

Global market for seeds and genetically modified crops

According to Phillips McDougall, the global seed market grew by 1.3% in 2018, reaching US $41.67 billion. Among them, the market of genetically modified seeds with herbicide resistance (HT), insect resistance (IR) and multiple traits was the same as that of last year, at US $21.97 billion (Figure 4).

In 2018, the total area of six major crops in the world decreased by 0.5% compared with that in 2017, among which the planting area of rape, soybean and rice continued to grow, while the area of cotton, wheat and corn declined slightly.

Figure 4 global seed sales ($m)

After 22 years of commercialization of genetically modified products, genetically modified crops have become a major part of the global seed market, and their share is still growing. The four major transgenic crops (soybean, corn, cotton and rape) account for 99% of the global transgenic crop area (Figure 5; Figure 6; Figure 7).

Figure 5 global GM crop planting area in 1996-2018

Figure 6 global genetically modified crop cultivation in 2018 ISAAA

Figure 7 planting area of four transgenic crops (unit: 10000 HA) | wind

In 2017 and 2018, significant changes took place in the structure of seed industry. Sinochem completed the acquisition of Syngenta by US $43 billion, Dow and DuPont by US $130 billion. In addition, due to the acquisition of Monsanto, Bayer crop science assets were divested to BASF. A long history has evolved into a new one for Bayer, cordiva, Syngenta and BASF. According to statistics, from 2009 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of enterprises in this industry is 5.2%.

Opportunities in China

Germplasm resources are the important basis of R & D and breeding. The quantity and quality of germplasm resources have a great influence on the performance of varieties. China has rich planting resources. Since the implementation of seed law, China has vigorously promoted the construction of agricultural germplasm resource bank. At present, the protection and utilization of agricultural germplasm resources in China has achieved positive results, and the total amount of resources continues to increase. By the end of 2018, China has built a long-term germplasm resource bank, a reproduction bank, 10 medium-term banks, 43 germplasm nurseries and 199 original habitat protection sites; 2114 long-term preserved species and 500000 germplasm resources, ranking second in the world.

China's germplasm resources can not be called a powerful country. First, China's germplasm resources have not been effectively protected and the risk of disappearance is increasing. Second, what has been protected has not been fully utilized. Third, the protection system and supporting policies are not perfect. Seed industry R & D and industrialization are complementary. Technology R & D is the foundation of industrialization, and industrialization benefits feed R & D, seed enterprises are also willing to invest to obtain upgrading new products to further enhance their market competitiveness, so as to achieve a virtuous circle of research, production and marketing integration.

Germplasm resources include not only original seeds, but also seed varieties improved by hybridization and biotechnology. In the field of biological breeding, although the work in the field of scientific research has never stopped, due to the policy restrictions of commercial landing, the advantages of germplasm resources in China have not been effectively transformed into industrial advantages. At present, only cotton and papaya are the transgenic crops to be planted on a large scale in China. However, at the beginning of 2020, the agricultural and rural areas should not turn to the insect resistant and herbicide tolerant corn "dbn9936" of Beijing Dabei agricultural biotechnology Co., Ltd., the insect resistant and herbicide tolerant corn "dbn9936" of Hangzhou Ruifeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd., the insect resistant and herbicide tolerant corn "double resistance 12-5" of Zhejiang University and the herbicide tolerant soybean "shzd32" of Shanghai Jiaotong University- The "01" issued the safety certificate of agricultural genetically modified organisms, which is expected to realize the promotion of domestic genetically modified crops to major crops. If the genetically modified seeds can be industrialized, it will promote the construction of China into a powerful country in germplasm resources.

At present, the research and development of transgenic technology has changed from disease and insect resistance, herbicide resistance and other products to the second generation products such as improving nutrition quality, increasing output, storage resistance and the third generation products such as industry, medicine and bioreactor. Since 2015, the third generation of transgenic technology and gene editing technology have been launched in the United States to meet consumer nutrition and health. China's transgenic breeding started late but developed rapidly. It has initially formed a complete transgenic crop R & D system from basic research, application research to product development, and has become one of the few countries in the world that really have the capability of independent R & D of transgenic organisms (Figure 8).

Figure 8 technological development of global genetically modified crops

After more than 20 years of development, China has acquired more than 100 key genes with independent intellectual property rights and significant breeding value, with the total number of transgenes ranking the second in the world. As an important embodiment of the strength of transgenic research and development, SCI papers on transgenic crops published in China have also been in the forefront of the world. It can be said that Chinese scientists are at the international level in the research of rice functional genomics and gene cloning, and the research of corn, wheat, soybean and cotton functional genes has also stepped into the forefront of the world. However, China has always been cautious about transgenic. If industrialization can promote, new varieties with independent intellectual property rights are bound to spring up.